Technical analysis and its dependency on volatility, the report

Some time ago I posted about the topic of my dissertation. There were some interest in getting access to the report when it was completed, and I’m glad to say that it’s finally done. So if you want to go straight to the details, here’s the link: The profitability of technical analysis in a high frequency… Continue reading Technical analysis and its dependency on volatility, the report

Excessive Optimism and Analyst Recommendations

This blog post taps into some of the theories outlined by behavioral finance. Specifically I’m going to look at research done on what is called overconfidence. Overconfidence among investors can manifest itself in many ways. One of these forms is excessive optimism (or pessimism) with regards to beliefs in future outcome. Carleton, Chen, and Steiner… Continue reading Excessive Optimism and Analyst Recommendations

The profitability of technical analysis in a high frequency setting

UPDATE: The report has been completed, available here. One busy month behind me, and another one up next. Currently doing exam revisions and had some rather time consuming coursework so far, which has sadly prohibited me from doing anything here on this blog. So, to make up for a month of no blog activity I’ll set aside… Continue reading The profitability of technical analysis in a high frequency setting

A deep dive into the January barometer

So as it’s still a rather fresh 2011, and January so far is looking a little mixed, I thought it would be fun to do a deep dive into a calender effect called the January Barometer. Many people seem to confuse this with the January Effect, but they are different things.

The January barometer states that the direction (of the S&P 500 at least) during January can be viewed as an indicator for the following 11 months. So in other words, if the S&P 500 ends up this January, that would be an indication of a good coming year overall and vice versa.

There’s no specific reasoning given for why it should be like this. One could theorize that there might be some form of structural break as we enter a new year with new budgets and everything. So say the general economy was heading up, then more would be invested, starting in January and then continuing.

But why just theorize? There’s easily available data we could download and look at. And that’s just what I did.

My portfolio performance

It’s been a few years since I created my own trading system, and I think it’s time to do a review of the performance. The strategies reviewed here have remained unchanged for this period, and the portfolio consists of in total 9 different stocks, all part of the OBX index. There are several distinct strategies, and based on back-test performance (three years ago) a stock/strategy combination was selected so that of the 9 distinct stocks my portfolio would consists of 20 separate stock/strategy combinations.

My portfolio shows a fourfold increase over the period, using an equally weighted portfolio of all the stock/strategies available. This is not based on back-testing, but actual trading signals that I could and in fact did trade on.